Counter-Strike 2 Case Odds
General info
This webpage serves the purpose of showing and visualizing Counter-Strike 2 case/capsule/package odds, in order to give the user a better overview of the actual odds of getting an item of sought rarity. This webpage will somewhat also address common misinformation such as the probability to get an item with StatTrak™ is 10% (this is not completely true.)
The data shown on this webpage is based on a blog post [csgo.com.cn] from 2017 by Perfect World. The same data is used for cases/capsules/packages released post-2017 and Counter-Strike 2.
It is important to understand that probability shown under "Odds by the numbers" are the outcomes of cosmic sample sizes. For an even more accurate representation of the probability of opening a certain rarity, see "Probability Calculation."
Ratio between rarities
The standard ratios between rarities for containers that can be opened with a key are as follows:
- Exceedingly Rare Item : Covert - 2:5
- Covert : Classified - 1:5
- Classified : Restricted - 1:5
- Restricted : Mil-Spec - 1:5
It is widely accepted that the probability to get an item with StatTrak™ is 10%, however this is not the case. As pointed out in the blog post by Perfect World the ratio of Non-StatTrak™ to StatTrak™ is 1:10, making the probability of turning the item into a StatTrak™ version ~9.0909%.
- Non-StatTrak™ : StatTrak™ - 1:10
For containers including rarities lower than Mil-Spec, the ratios are as followed:
- Mil-Spec : Industrial Grade - 5:24
- Industrial Grade : Consumer Grade - 1:5
Sticker Capsules, Patch Packs and Graffiti Boxes follow a similar set of ratios like containers that are opened with a key:
- Extraordinary : Exotic - 1:5
- Exotic : Remarkable - 1:5
- Remarkable : High Grade - 1:5
While it might be assumed that Collectible Pin Capsules follow the ratios of containers that require a key, they do have their own unique set of ratios:
- Extraordinary : Exotic - 1:2
- Exotic : Remarkable - 1:2
- Remarkable : High Grade - 1:2
While it might be obvious to some, but not to others, containers that only has a single rarity has an equal chance between each item (ex. StatTrak™ Music Kit Boxes.):
- High Grade : High Grade - 1:1
Odds by the numbers
| Rarity | Probability | StatTrak™ Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Exceedingly Rare Item | ||
| Covert | ||
| Classified | ||
| Restricted | ||
| Mil-Spec |
| Rarity | Probability |
|---|---|
| Covert | |
| Classified | |
| Restricted | |
| Mil-Spec | |
| Industrial Grade | |
| Consumer Grade |
| Rarity | Probability |
|---|---|
| Extraordinary | |
| Exotic | |
| Remarkable | |
| High Grade |
| Rarity | Probability |
|---|---|
| Extraordinary | |
| Exotic | |
| Remarkable | |
| High Grade |
| Exterior | Probability | StatTrak™ Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | ||
| Minimal Wear | ||
| Field-Tested | ||
| Well-Worn | ||
| Battle-Scarred |
Probability Calculation
It's important to understand that there are no guarantees. However, if we define "guaranteed" as being within 99.99%ile and 99.999%ile, we calculate an estimate of how many tries are needed before succeeding with the wanted outcome.